Money and Active Users

The following graph shows the contribution of Skype to the eBay revenue for the last 5 quarters, expressed as well in US$ as in € (euro). Contribution is basically “revenue less costs”, see one of my previous posts.This has clearly a flattening tendency.
The same number expressed per User Account is even worse:It has a downward tendency, although, according to Skype the user base has increased with 33 million! Pity that they only report the number of registered user accounts, and not the active users.
User accounts includes also the multiple accounts of one person, the accounts that are completely abandoned for whatever reason, including the accounts of deceased persons.
Estimates from Hudson Barton and myself of active users are below 35 million!
By the way, what happened with the Skype Account(s) of Russel Shaw?


Deceiving quarterly results

Skype published its quarterly results, and i am not convinced we can call this good results!

Indeed, the quarterly revenue raised from 115 million US$ to 126 million US$, therefore an increase of about 10%, but …
  1. Calculated in Euro (€) this is a quarterly increase of only 2%!
  2. And … registered users have gone up by 12%!
Worse is the revenue per user account. In US$ it still seems to have an upward tendency, but in Euro it has definitely a downward tendency!Why is a conversion of the revenue in Euro worth to do?
  1. Only 18% of the revenue is generated in the USA (therefore US$ revenue!);
  2. Skype is still a European company registered in Luxemburg;
  3. Most Skype staff are located in Europe, therefore the costs are also accountable in Euro (€).
Hmmm …


Google-Skype: planned engagement?

Today several blogs launched the rumour of a possible affair between Google and Skype. See here, here and here.

Well, i think the rumour could be true! Why? Not because there isn’t a hidden eBay emoticon in the Skype client but …

only because THE TIMING SEEMS TO BE NO COINCIDENCE: beginning of April! See my previous post “Where is the new CEO?” or directly this: eBay agreed that if, on or prior to March 31, 2008, eBay sells or transfers securities representing greater than 50% of the outstanding voting power of, or economic interest in, Skype (it) would pay up to an additional €138,411,300 … to the Earn Out Sellers.

But why did Skype-eBay appoint a new CEO some weeks ago?